{"id":105503,"date":"2026-08-24T17:22:24","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T20:22:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/impactopr.com.br\/?p=105503"},"modified":"2026-08-24T17:44:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T20:44:04","slug":"tmc-instituto-alfa-deltan-e-gleisi-lideram-disputa-ao-senado-no-parana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/impactopr.com.br\/tmc-instituto-alfa-deltan-e-gleisi-lideram-disputa-ao-senado-no-parana\/","title":{"rendered":"TMC\/Instituto Alfa: Pesquisa acirrada em busca das duas vagas ao Senado no Paran\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Levantamento estimulado da Alfa Intelig\u00eancia aponta ex-procurador com 33% e deputada com 28% das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto; Alexandre Curi e Filipe Barros tamb\u00e9m se destacam na corrida pelas duas vagas em 2026<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/tmc.com.br\/politica\/pesquisa-tmc-instituto-alfa-deltan-e-gleisi-lideram-disputa-ao-senado-no-parana\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=TMC\/Instituto%20Alfa:%20Deltan%20e%20Gleisi%20lideram%20disputa%20ao%20Senado%20no%20Paran%C3%A1&amp;url=https:\/\/tmc.com.br\/politica\/pesquisa-tmc-instituto-alfa-deltan-e-gleisi-lideram-disputa-ao-senado-no-parana\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/share\/url?url=https:\/\/tmc.com.br\/politica\/pesquisa-tmc-instituto-alfa-deltan-e-gleisi-lideram-disputa-ao-senado-no-parana\/&amp;text=TMC\/Instituto%20Alfa:%20Deltan%20e%20Gleisi%20lideram%20disputa%20ao%20Senado%20no%20Paran%C3%A1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><\/a>\u00a0Uma nova pesquisa de opini\u00e3o p\u00fablica divulgada pela\u00a0<strong>TMC\/Instituto Alfa<\/strong>\u00a0em\u00a0<strong>agosto de 2026<\/strong>\u00a0traz o primeiro panorama consolidado da disputa pelas duas vagas do Paran\u00e1 no Senado Federal. O levantamento aponta o ex-procurador\u00a0<strong>Deltan Dallagnol<\/strong>\u00a0na lideran\u00e7a, seguido de perto pela deputada federal\u00a0<strong>Gleisi Hoffmann<\/strong>, em um cen\u00e1rio que ainda exibe alto \u00edndice de indecis\u00e3o por parte do eleitorado paranaense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A pesquisa contou com&nbsp;<strong>1.200 entrevistas<\/strong>, possui&nbsp;<strong>margem de erro de \u00b1 2,8%<\/strong>&nbsp;e&nbsp;<strong>n\u00edvel de confian\u00e7a de 95%<\/strong>. Como em 2026 os eleitores paranaenses escolher\u00e3o dois representantes para o Senado, os entrevistados puderam indicar at\u00e9 dois nomes, o que faz com que a soma das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto consolidadas supere 100%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Deltan e Gleisi na frente<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No cen\u00e1rio estimulado consolidado (que soma a primeira e a segunda op\u00e7\u00f5es de voto dos eleitores),&nbsp;<strong>Deltan Dallagnol<\/strong>&nbsp;desponta com&nbsp;<strong>33%<\/strong>&nbsp;das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto.&nbsp;<strong>Gleisi Hoffmann<\/strong>&nbsp;aparece logo a seguir, com&nbsp;<strong>28%<\/strong>, configurando os dois nomes mais fortes para as duas cadeiras em disputa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abaixo, o desempenho consolidado de todos os concorrentes testados pela pesquisa:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Deltan Dallagnol:<\/strong>\u00a033%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gleisi Hoffmann:<\/strong>\u00a028%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Alexandre Curi:<\/strong>\u00a025%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Filipe Barros:<\/strong>\u00a021%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Cristina Graeml:<\/strong>\u00a017%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Dr. Rosinha:<\/strong>\u00a015%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Joaquim do MLB:<\/strong>\u00a03%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Marcelo Marcelino:<\/strong>\u00a02%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Karen Guerreiro:<\/strong>\u00a02%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Branco\/Nulo:<\/strong>\u00a015%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>N\u00e3o sabe \/ N\u00e3o respondeu:<\/strong>\u00a038%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A din\u00e2mica do primeiro e do segundo voto<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A pesquisa da Alfa Intelig\u00eancia tamb\u00e9m detalhou a prefer\u00eancia dos eleitores ao separarem o primeiro e o segundo voto:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>No Primeiro Voto:<\/strong>\u00a0Deltan Dallagnol lidera de forma mais isolada com\u00a0<strong>24%<\/strong>, seguido de Gleisi Hoffmann com\u00a0<strong>22%<\/strong>\u00a0e Alexandre Curi com\u00a0<strong>15%<\/strong>. Os indecisos neste quesito somam apenas\u00a0<strong>9%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>No Segundo Voto:<\/strong>\u00a0A indecis\u00e3o cresce significativamente, saltando para\u00a0<strong>29%<\/strong>. Entre os nomes definidos, Cristina Graeml registra\u00a0<strong>11%<\/strong>, seguida de perto por Alexandre Curi, Filipe Barros e Dr. Rosinha, todos com\u00a0<strong>10%<\/strong>, enquanto Deltan tem\u00a0<strong>9%<\/strong>\u00a0e Gleisi\u00a0<strong>6%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Essa varia\u00e7\u00e3o mostra que a defini\u00e7\u00e3o do segundo senador ainda est\u00e1 aberta e pode sofrer fortes altera\u00e7\u00f5es ao longo da campanha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Alto \u00edndice de indecis\u00e3o<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quando os eleitores s\u00e3o questionados de forma espont\u00e2nea (sem a apresenta\u00e7\u00e3o de uma lista de candidatos) para citar dois nomes de sua prefer\u00eancia, o \u00edndice de indecis\u00e3o \u00e9 massivo. O grupo dos que&nbsp;<strong>n\u00e3o sabem ou n\u00e3o responderam<\/strong>&nbsp;atinge&nbsp;<strong>138%<\/strong>&nbsp;(representando a soma das duas respostas de voto em aberto de cada eleitor).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dentre os candidatos lembrados espontaneamente, os n\u00fameros s\u00e3o:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Deltan Dallagnol:<\/strong>\u00a016%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gleisi Hoffmann:<\/strong>\u00a010%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Alexandre Curi:<\/strong>\u00a07%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Filipe Barros:<\/strong>\u00a06%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Cristina Graeml:<\/strong>\u00a05%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u00c1lvaro Dias:<\/strong>\u00a04%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Rafael Greca:<\/strong>\u00a02%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Dr. Rosinha:<\/strong>\u00a02%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Outros:<\/strong>\u00a06%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Branco\/Nulo:<\/strong>\u00a04%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Disputa regionalizada<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Os votos para o Senado Federal desenham um mapa bastante regionalizado no Paran\u00e1:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Metropolitana de Curitiba:<\/strong>\u00a0H\u00e1 um equil\u00edbrio not\u00e1vel. Alexandre Curi soma\u00a0<strong>30%<\/strong>, Deltan Dallagnol aparece com\u00a0<strong>32%<\/strong>, Filipe Barros com\u00a0<strong>25%<\/strong>, Cristina Graeml com\u00a0<strong>21%<\/strong>\u00a0e Gleisi Hoffmann com\u00a0<strong>19%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Norte Central Paranaense:<\/strong>\u00a0\u00c9 o principal reduto de Gleisi Hoffmann, que lidera na regi\u00e3o com\u00a0<strong>40%<\/strong>, seguida por Deltan Dallagnol com\u00a0<strong>28%<\/strong>\u00a0e Dr. Rosinha com\u00a0<strong>22%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Centro-Sul Paranaense:<\/strong>\u00a0Deltan Dallagnol registra seu melhor desempenho regional, alcan\u00e7ando\u00a0<strong>55%<\/strong>\u00a0das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto consolidadas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Diferen\u00e7as de idade e g\u00eanero<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A prefer\u00eancia do eleitorado tamb\u00e9m varia conforme o perfil demogr\u00e1fico:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>G\u00eanero:<\/strong>\u00a0Entre os homens, Deltan Dallagnol lidera com\u00a0<strong>37%<\/strong>\u00a0(contra\u00a0<strong>30%<\/strong>\u00a0de Gleisi). Entre as mulheres, a disputa fica mais estreita: Deltan soma\u00a0<strong>29%<\/strong>\u00a0e Gleisi aparece com\u00a0<strong>27%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Juventude (16 a 24 anos):<\/strong>\u00a0A lideran\u00e7a na faixa mais jovem pertence a Gleisi Hoffmann, que alcan\u00e7a\u00a0<strong>37%<\/strong>, enquanto Deltan Dallagnol tem\u00a0<strong>26%<\/strong>\u00a0e Filipe Barros tem\u00a0<strong>25%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Idosos (70 anos ou mais):<\/strong>\u00a0Deltan Dallagnol tem seu desempenho mais forte entre os idosos, liderando com\u00a0<strong>42%<\/strong>\u00a0de inten\u00e7\u00e3o de voto, frente a\u00a0<strong>25%<\/strong>\u00a0de Gleisi Hoffmann e de Alexandre Curi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A pesquisa contou com&nbsp;<strong>1.200 entrevistas<\/strong>, possui&nbsp;<strong>margem de erro de \u00b1 2,8%<\/strong>&nbsp;e&nbsp;<strong>n\u00edvel de confian\u00e7a de 95%<\/strong>. Como em 2026 os eleitores paranaenses escolher\u00e3o dois representantes para o Senado, os entrevistados puderam indicar at\u00e9 dois nomes, o que faz com que a soma das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto consolidadas supere 100%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A pesquisa da TMC\/Instituto Alfa ouviu 1.200 pessoas, possui uma margem de erro de 2,8% e um n\u00edvel de confian\u00e7a de 95%. O estudo est\u00e1 registrado no TSE sob n\u00famero PR-05032\/2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Levantamento estimulado da Alfa Intelig\u00eancia aponta ex-procurador com 33% e deputada com 28% das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto; Alexandre Curi e<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":105507,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[47,52],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-105503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-destaques_cima","category-politica"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>TMC\/Instituto Alfa: Pesquisa acirrada em busca das duas vagas ao Senado no Paran\u00e1 - 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